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Hockey was always tough for recruiting, with around 10% of all US high school guys getting to any level of college, but – adding in the CHL guys to the preps, other juniors, and international player pool – it’s creating a storm that I’m not sure the community is really ready for.
The CHL was always more for when players had professional aspirations (for development, etc) over selecting a league that would allow them to maintain amateur status, returning to school if they wanted (and could).
Once they chose the CHL, they were deemed ineligible for the NCAA (given the pro status). Of course, if and when they elected to go back to school, it was as a student only. By that time, their playing days were over.
This new decision muddies the waters quite a bit. I’m still working to make sense of it myself, but this is what I see:
I don’t think it’ll be a mass exodus in one wave from the CHL of all guys on the 60 teams (to D1s 64) wanting to take spots all at once, but – as guys better understand their NHL fate, or realize that they need even more time to develop – they’ll make the move to try to get on a college team. It could be that something clicks in them and they realize that they’ll never make it to the pros, but want to get an education while still playing the game they love.
With this, the average age of players will most certainly increase. It’s typical now to play at least one year of juniors (NAHL, etc) before heading to the NCAA, this will go to two (if not more… the age out requirements, I’m hoping, should be held firm).
Schools will do what basketball teams do now… and build teams not necessarily programs. If Uconn needs a center, they go to the portal to get a center… getting a guy in a ‘win now’ sense. They get a guy for a year or two to fill a role at a high level; he gets to go to a team with a chance to win a championship. Hockey will do the same (and has started already). They’ll get a guy who is able to play not only the game at a high level, but he’s that he can handle the student and academic part with success. Power D1 teams will get from lesser D1s; other D1s will draw from D3s.
The NCAA’s upheaval – really for big money (football, basketball) sports than anything else, but other sports follow suit – has (1) made the transfer portal prevalent, and (2) added scholarships for all rostered D1 guys while cutting roster spots (something teams were already having to deal with after it was on its way to being approved this summer, the cutting of 4+ guys from each team, decommitting guys).
Messing around with football was one thing, but with so many teams the pain isn’t felt "as much". Hockey only has 64 D1 teams. In 2025, they’ll each have 26 guys rostered… 1,664 guys total. And the brunt of it isn’t only on D1s, as the trickle down will affect the D3s and put the squeeze on roster spots there too.
The window of opportunity to get recruited as a true freshman isn’t completely closed, but – as something that was slim to begin with – the window been shut a bit more. The Ivy League and the NESCAC will still need to see the great grades. Some silver lining: in chatting with a NESCAC coach he recognizes that the schools in the conference will still have their academic standards and - because many of the CHL guys focused on hockey over school - they won't be able to get admitted in the first place.
I have a feeling that this isn't the last of the changes. I'm hoping on one hand that there is some push back on the recent developments; two, I'm hoping that as the large conferences gobble up programs and have realigned (again, thanks football), that more of the club teams at those schools shift to become formal NCAA teams (like what USC is doing)... adding more D1 teams would give some cushion.
For now, the focus for your son is clearly on doing as well as he can on the ice and in the classroom. As he goes, he'll want to have high level discussions with the prep/high school coaches about their goals for him, how they'll leverage their network and what insight they can provide that is valuable for him moving forward. Communication will be key (as it always is): with the coaches he has, with the college teams (for transparency) and, above all, with himself.